With Vaughan Roderick's blog posts getting longer and longer, it's becoming more and more challenging to translate them, so here are a few highlights:
"Kirsty Williams is the new Welsh Lib Dem Leader - and with a bigger majority than I was expecting. No-one can deny that sh'e got a mandate - but a mandate for what?
I have read and re-read many of her articles and speeches....
There's a clear direction in which Kirsty wishes the party to go namely regaining the party's radicalism and Welshness. The aim is to re-gain the baton that Gwynfor Evans stole from them in rural Wales while continuing to build on the foundations laid yn urban Wales over the last quarter century.
Easier said than done. Outside Geredigion it is rarely a party of Welsh language areas.On denbighshire, Conwy, Ynys Môn, Gwynedd, Caarmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire councils the party has a total of 16 councillors. Even adding Ceredigion the total only reaches 26. Even that total is a little kind given that it includes councillors representing English-speaking wards in places like Conwy and Denbighshire. How on earth does one build a movement on such shakey foundations?
Well, Kirsty Williams' charisma will be of some help. It seems that her profile will be a little higher than Mike German's and less laughable than Lembit Opik. A recognisable and charismatic leader can be a key factor in an election. The unending unfavourable comparisons between Alun Michael and Dafydd Wigley won a jackpot of votes for Blaid Cymru in 1999, for example.
Having said that, it's possible that historians will consider Ieuan Wyn Jones a more important figure in Plaid Cymru's history than Dafydd Wigley or Dafydd Elis Thomas. Ieuan's not a charismatic man and he can be a bit of an embarrassment. But who led his party into government? Who devised the strategy and appointed the right people to create a campaigning machine which is the envy of the other parties?
It's that machine that Kirsty intends to challenge. She has chosen a tough nut to crack - but she hasn't got much choice.
Ironically enough, because of PR the tactical games the Lib Dems play so well don't work in Assembly elections. Just keeping going and living in hope wasn't an option. Because of the national situation, the party must fight defensive battles against Labour and the Tories. Targeting Plaid Cymru is the only option on the table.
She's got her strategy therefore. In the short-term it's unlikely to succeed. In the next big electoral test* - the general election, the party's got a lot to lose and not much to win. Patience will be needed - from Kirsty and her party.
*Sorry, I don't count the European election as an important test - we know the result already!"
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2 comments:
"Well, Kirsty Williams' charisma will be of some help...A recognisable and charismatic leader can be a key factor in an election"
How on earth could Kirsty been described as charismatic?
Have you been watching the same Kirsty Williams as everyone else over the past few years?
I'm gobsmacked...
I'm not sure you'd say that IWJ has created a party whose canpaigning is the envy of other parties.
He's an able politician, but as we all know Dafydd Wigley's presence might have meant Plaid was the 1st party in the 2007 election.
IWJ plays it too safe , and has in fact lost the party's campaigning edge that would help it fight Labour in the Labour heartlands that Labour has so badly failed.
That said, more power to him.
We'll see if the Plaid vote goes up in the Euro election, and if it manages to take Ynys Mon and Ceredigion. These would be the bare minimum to talk about a resurgence. Llanelli a bonus.
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