Today's Yougov poll has created alot of excitement in the Welsh blogosphere and has also made the news today, with the media mainly reporting the previously inconceivable advances being made by the Tories as Labour in both its "New" and "Welsh" guises continues to collapse as a political force in this country. That Plaid is on the rise is some consolation, but the poll still does not make comfortable reading for the future, as it means Wales would be inflicted with a Tory UK government it did not generally vote for.
But there is another story buried in the poll findings that could have even more of a dramatic impact on Welsh politics.
The Liberal Democrats are on the verge of disappearing as a political entity of any credible size in Wales.
This blog has been highlighting the Lib Dems' problems and difficulties in appealing to the electorate for some time. But the damning indictment of them as a party is that their party leader in Wales, is vastly unknown according to the poll, and lacks support amongst those people that do recognise her, including Liberal Democrat voters.
There are serious problems with the Lib Dems, with their standing at UK level in disarray after constant u-turns and swivellings and a dreadful performance by Clegg as leader, with his political positions and image being indistinguishable from that of Cameron.
It does beg the question, what are they for? A perennial bloc of 6 Assembly Members, allegedly deeply divided, advocating no particularly consistent vision for Welsh policy-making except from their consistency in opposing everything Plaid or Labour does. Their paranoia and short-sightedness in aiming their attacks at Plaid Cymru unwittingly tells more voters that Plaid is involved in wielding power (something Plaid's opponents should not be doing) and lets the UK Government off the hook. They now face wipe-out in Wales at the next General Election, and could be reduced to just a single Parliamentary seat. That is a very serious position for them to be in.
The Lib Dems became the 5th party in Welsh politics at the last European Elections. Being pro-European is not an excuse for this performance, Plaid is a pro-European party and although this blog will NOT claim Plaid set the world alight in those elections, they certainly did not collapse.
It is a little-kept secret in UK politics that the Lib Dems are accused of being opportunists, centrists and "all things to all people", and more quietly it is claimed that they have a tendency to engage in dubious and sometimes distatesful electoral tactics. But there are some good Lib Dems amongst their MPs, and they do consistently win constituency seats all over the UK. Furthermore, because Westminster is so right-wing, it is often Lib Dem figures that do a great job in shining a light on the failures of the two bigger British political parties. For example, socialists can't deny that Vince Cable did offer a good view on the economy, even though his social democratic theory is surely at odds with the centre-right Orange Book clique of economic liberals around Nick Clegg.
Here in Wales the story is different, and there is simply no point in them. The Welsh Lib Dems don't have a Vince Cable, and the respected Mick Bates, their most dependable Member, is retiring. They are the annoying and pointless uncle at the family gathering that is Welsh politics.
The only significant treatment of the Welsh Lib Dems in recent times was a generous piece from Daran Hill, but even his most optimistic assessment could only see the Lib Dems running local councils, and potentially gaining two list seats in the future if the UK political conditions swung the right way. The direction of travel in both Welsh and UK politics is not currently pointing towards any such advances, but is instead predicting reversals.
Liberalism is a valid and proud political tradition that has just as glorious a history as the tradition that Ramblings hails from. Liberal politics changed the course of human history. Today, it is a sad fact that this once-proud tradition is now represented in Wales by an MP who writes for a soft porn publication, and an unknown centrist career politician. The Welsh Lib Dems' failure to do justice to those that have gone before them is not funny or edifiying, it is simply shameful.
China's Test
4 hours ago
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9 comments:
Instead of attacking other parties the Lib Dems could start by persuading their own supporters to support Lib Dem policies. According to YouGov 44% of Lib Dem supporters will vote No in a referendum and just 38% will vote Yes. What a shower.
All valid comments and I agree with your view. Plaid can only gain from the demise of Labour and the Liberal disarray, particularly as the Tories will form the government and the great majority of Welsh voters are traditionally anti-Tory. It is a real opportunity for Plaid to seize the initiative.
Ouch ramblings. bang on the money mind.
Actually, I think that the fact that LDs are not very supportive of their policy on devolution, makes perfect sense.
The historical strength of Welsh Liberals was always in its non-conformist roots, which is still evident in places like Montgomeryshire & Ceredigion, but other Welsh speaking areas have moved firmly to Plaid.
Meantime, LDs have been targeting suburban seats along the coast which are more cosmopolitan in nature, and more likely to adopt a British first Welsh second approach.
the welsh lib dem leader does not get the praise she deserves. She is brave, is willing to expose corruption or poor practice and is willing to consider new ideas and afresh start for wales
yes it is gloomy for the Liberals in Wales, however it does not that much better for Plaid either. I tend to agree with Alwyn about the accuracy of this poll based on their selection. The real winner seems to be apathy and that is not good for anyone.
This is a bed result for both Lib Dems and Plaid (Plaid surely cant be happy with a poor third place (15%) at half the support of the Tories (30%))
There certainly does seem to be a disconnect between LIB Dem policy and what Lib Dems on the ground believe or even know, especially when it comes to Welsh affairs - I remember speaking to a local Lib Dem councillor when he was campaigning before the last assembly election, he didn't know who Mike German was!
Anon, 15% for Plaid would in fact be their best ever General Election showing.
Well the Liberals have been down before. in 1979 the only got about 13% of the vote then bounced back in 1983 with 27 (I think) so dont write them off yet!
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