There's no need to get excited as the predicted collapse of the Welsh Government has failed to happen.
But it's clear that Plaid Cymru flexed its muscles earlier and simply will not be taken for a ride.
Rhodri Morgan under pressure in the Senedd Chamber appeared to contradict his press release with Peter Hain and the Party Chair. In the statement with Hain and Garry Owen, it appeared that the leadership of Welsh Labour were ruling out the possibility of a referendum during the lifetime of this Assembly. Hain's meddling caused embarassment for the First Minister who waffled and backtracked. It would be an utter disgrace if the right-wing MPs in Welsh Labour made the retirement of a much loved Welsh leader into a divided and incoherent shambles.
In the Chamber and in a subsequent statement supported by Ieuan Wyn Jones the First Minister affirmed that "nothing has been ruled in or ruled out, including, if it proved practical, a referendum in the autumn". This statement pretty much amounts to a retraction of Peter Hain's version of events.
It appears that Plaid have overruled Welsh Labour's leadership on this occasion, and that a referendum in autumn 2010, fast becoming a strong proposition, is still on the cards. If that possibility gets ruled out by the next Welsh Labour leader, then he or she should not expect Plaid's support.
The whole debacle serves as a huge reminder that Rhodri Morgan has to try and satisfy the British wing of his party, and the MPs, and that playing that game inevitably has forced him to contradict his own press statements. There should be a consultation in the Labour movement about this massive paradox, rather than re-running their 2007 consultation about acquiring powers.
His would-be successors should be looking at this and learning their lessons. Will Welsh Labour ever think for itself? Or will they continue to be taken for a ride by Peter Hain and yesterday's men?
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10 comments:
A feather in the cap for Ieuan and Plaid.
They stood their ground and Labour blinked first.
Just about right.
Even under Ieuan and Rhodri's plan, the order for laying a referendum will HAVE to be made in that January debate.
Not doing so means the autumn 2010 window becomes almost (but not quite) impossible.
If Labour holds back on this in January Plaid will have a choice, to let Labour off the hook, or pull this whole house of cards from under them.
If Labour shirk their duty in January then Plaid should walk out, knowing that "Welsh" Labour refused to take the steps to erect a defence to a Tory government at Westminster.
Rhodri backed down but will the next FM? If he can't stave off the anti-devolution MPs what makes you think Carwyn or Edwina will?
Imagine if it turned out the next Labour leader didn't get to be First Minister after all, lol!
The last sentence in the joint Labour / Plaid statement is exactly what Hain & Co have been pushing - for good and bad reasons - all along. It does not mean, automatically, a trigger vote early next year: "if practical".
Let's assume Labour plans to renege. They will prepare their political excuses. Build up the anti-Tory rhetoric. Economic 'upturn'. Can Plaid seriously pull out of coalition in that climate? Stab in the back. Letting the Tories in. Running away from the serious job of government.
One contention is this political class groupthink about the autumn.
What would be wrong with March 1st 2011? It would mean that we can all campaign hard for a yes vote, win it, then have the assembly election based on that new reality.
Within this, I still want the action to start now of course, I just mean that tactically I think the longer the tories have been in power, the more winnable the referendum becomes within the May 2011 window.
Anon 11:39, don't have a problem with March 1st 2011 personally but there would have to be clarity from the political parties on whether that is acceptable. If it's possible, then March 2011 would seem a viable alternative to autumn 2010, but I haven't seen any analysis of that yet.
Pravda Cymru, well if Labour plan to renege we'll know in January surely when that Assembly motion comes around. Plaid's support for law-making powers, even if those powers are actually not that extensive, insulates them from criticism of 'letting the Tories in'- at least they were supporting a line of defence against a Tory government. Helen Mary made a similar point on TV last night.
"If it's possible, then March 2011 would seem a viable alternative to autumn 2010, but I haven't seen any analysis of that yet."
Well I know it is being seen as a probable by a number of people.
Just to make clear, I didnt mean March 1st to mean a delay, we should set the date asap, just think March 1st would be the best date for us to win.
I think that a March 1st referendum date is a bit too close to the Assembly election date, from the point of view of voter fatigue, campaigner fatigue, and funding.
I think the EJP report said that the referendum should avoid the period 3 months either side of an election (Westminster or Senedd)
Anons, March 2011 is a non-starter, there is no conceivable way the Electoral Commission and the political parties would agree to it. We'd have to see a statement about it for it to even get on the radar as an option. Right now it's a bit of a red herring, autumn 2010 is the only pre-2011 option on the cards UNTIL we hear otherwise.
What nationalist rubbish
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