Having reported on the confused outlook for the Tories in Ynys Mon, it's worth noting that some noticeable splits are emerging amongst the Tories in Aberconwy. The constituency has a local blogging scene centred around Llandudno, and from the multitude of comments on their blogs there seem to be all kinds of rumours flying around. It's the sort of ultra-local stuff that isn't easily deciphered by outsiders, but anyone who has been involved in electioneering will know that internal divisions can easily paralyse and demoralise a local political party.
The main reason for them being in a stir seems to be the defection of the Tory President in Aberconwy, Cllr Dennis Tew, to Plaid Cymru. Guto Bebb, the Tory candidate, reacted furiously in a blog post. It's all very odd because Guto starts the blog post off in a reasonable tone, even wishing the Councillor "well in his future role as an independent or possible Plaid Cymru representative." He then flies off the hook, devoting two paragraphs to slating the local Councillor for not supporting previous Tory election bids, before concluding "in truth this news is no more than a distraction", contradicting himself. It's also a bit desperate to make a huff over Plaid being a "socialist and nationalist party"when Guto Bebb himself was a Plaid member for a good few years. There are now rumours that David Jones MP is stepping in and enforcing discipline amongst Aberconwy's Tory council group, to prevent anymore surprises
The likely result in Aberconwy is completely up in the air, but these splits can't be doing the Tories any good. If Plaid continue to conduct their own campaign with dignity they could pull off one of the upsets of the Westminster election.
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"If Plaid continue to conduct their own campaign with dignity they could pull off one of the upsets of the Westminster election. "
Not so sure - yes, people will vote Plaid for Assembly but realise there's no point to a Plaid presence at Westminster.
As for the reported 'spat', yes, it will affect individual activists (of both parties) but it will pass the public by.
You didn't mention the strong Lib Dem. candidiate for Aberconwy.
This seat really is anyone's - are there any reported bookies' odds?
They 'spats' certainly do pass the public by but team morale is just as important. There are plenty of people that are so fed up of both Labour and the Tories that they will see the point to having a Plaid MP. Guto Bebb's own blog recognises this as he claims to have uncovered significant residual support for Elfyn Llwyd in the constituency.
I didn't mention the Lib Dem candidate because they are also rans in Aberconwy. They are of course in contention throughout Mid Wales though.
Aberconwy is quite clearly now a Plaid-Tory fight and i'd expect any betting odds to reflect that.
For information the betting odds are
Tories 2/7
Plaid 7/2
I think Labour are 6/1
Of course he didn't mention the strong Lib Dem candidate. There isn't one. This is between the hypocrite Guto Bebb and Phil Edwards, Plaid.
I quite like Bebb although I'm not a Tory supporter. He's a sensible and pragmatic politician unlike so many of the left of Plaid and almost all Labourites. They would like that state to take over everything. Free breakfasts! LOL! I do hope Plaid win the seat though.
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