Tories flop in Llandudno

The Tories held their Welsh Spring Conference in Llandudno, showing how seriously they are taking the Aberconwy seat. A UK-wide poster campaign featuring a mother from the town (presumably she is grateful she isn't a single mother who will be stripped of benefits under Tory plans) was launched to coincide with Dave Cameron's visit. But the problem with the London parties is that they come here and descend on our towns with their signature policies and posters without knowing the real issues that are going on in our communities. So while Plaid's visit to Llandudno coincided with AM Gareth Jones securing investment for the local hospital and a local credit union, the Tories' visit has, according to popular local paper the North Wales Pioneer, been overshadowed by the difficulties and splits surrounding the local party in that area of Wales.

As Cameron basked in the stage-managed glory of a party conference, the Tories lost another councillor who has defected to the independents, and had their candidate Guto Bebb launch an attack on the integrity local press. His blog has since been taken down. No wonder the Pioneer's front page ran with an anti-Guto Bebb story and an anti-Lord Ashcroft story. At the same time the Tories are stagnating in the UK polls (polls which will have a huge effect on a seat like Aberconwy), not because of any fondness for Labour but because a large body of working people find Conservative policies distasteful and worrying.

This might seem like fanciful stuff but these kind of local splits can paralyse a campaign, and it might be that the Tories will struggle to get their activists out to secure a victory for Bebb. Make no mistake, if the Tories do not win in this, one of their highest UK-wide target seats, it would send shockwaves through the political establishment.