Whether it's comparing Welsh NHS waiting times to England, Welsh education spending to Ireland, or the Welsh economy to other poor parts of the EU, Wales often comes off badly in those international comparisons so loved by the media and by the opposition in Wales. We all know that most of these comparisons are not strictly fair, but the damage they do when they appear in print is considerbale. It might damage the governing parties to an extent, but although most of the levers to address anything to do with the economy or spending (but not hospital waiting times, it should be noted) remain with Westminster, negative headlines about Wales invariably hurt the Assembly's reputation, and dent the standing of all politicians that sit in the Assembly. After all, because the Welsh Government is so active at the moment, alot of people in Wales (according to consistent polling) are under the misapprehension that the Assembly has the most influence over Welsh affairs. This cuts both ways, because although it shows that the Welsh Government is performing well, they also then get the blame for things beyond their influence or control that go wrong.
One of the biggest threats to devolution and the progress of democracy in Wales is the drip feed of these anti-Welsh headline statistics.
In this case, the Tories have managed to capture a prominent headline in the Western Mail that reads "Labour ‘complacency’ as stats put Wales below Eastern Europe". This isn't so much talking Wales down (it's factually correct), but making an unsuitable comparison for political gain, to try and shore up the Tories ahead of an election that isn't even an Assembly one. It's a game focused on British politics rather than on scrutinising the Welsh Government. Indeed, if an Assembly election was approaching, he would've blamed Ieuan Wyn Jones for a global economic crisis that was caused by the kind of people that fund the Conservative party.
Now what are these new stats that are putting us below eastern Europe? They're unemployment stats. Nick Bourne is correct when he says “We have the highest unemployment rate of any UK nation – and higher than countries like Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia.” This is true, Welsh unemployment in February was at 8.6%, while the UK level is 7.9%. It is the worst rate of any UK nation. But it's misleading for Bourne to blame this on the Welsh Government, because for most of the devolution period Welsh unemployment was actually lower than the UK average. The fact Nick Bourne knows this makes his intentions with this press statement even more questionable.
He has deliberately used eastern Europe in his comparison because for people that are not clued up, "countries like Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia" conjure up emotive images of poor, Stalinist economies, Trabant cars and secret police. The reality is different, with eastern Europe's economies making huge strides and catching up with the rest of Europe. Welsh unemployment is bad at the moment, but it is lower than some of the wealthiest nations like France (10%), Ireland (12.7%) and the United States (9.7%), and far better than places like Spain. Welsh unemployment is about the same as German unemployment at the moment. When the US Ambassador last visited Wales he said America would prefer Wales' unemployment rate "any day". So the Tories have just used eastern Europe because of commonly-held misconceptions that those countries are backward, old-fashioned or cheap. It's an attitude that taps into the anti-foreigner sentiment so beloved of Conservative politicians.
If Labour or Plaid had put out a press release saying "New stats put Wales ahead of France and the USA" they would be just as factually correct as Nick Bourne's press release. But they wouldn't do so because they'd know it is not an honest comparison. It seems only the Tories are willing to damage devolution with these misleading, inaccurate and anti-Welsh claims. Nick Bourne should be ridiculed in the Assembly chamber for his cynical belief that Westminster elections are more important than devolution.
15 comments:
good analysis of what the figures 'actually' say WR but i wouldnt be too worried about usual hysterical response from the hard line anti-assembly lobby.....fact is these figures simply demonstrate why we need greater powers in wales..as clearly the existing arrangement we have with the westminister parliament is not working!!!!
The fact that the response from the 'footsoldiers' of true wales is to use these figures in order to denounce the entire devolution project is grist to our mill ...as this is EXACTLEY what we want them to be saying in the forthcoming referendum!!!
I want the choice that will face voters in the rederendum to be between those of us who want a stronger assembly in order to make devolution for wales work better....and those in true wales who want to see the assembly abolsihed and to see wales once again under the control of a right wing secretary of state with a constituency outside wales!!! Look at all the polling data....do the maths...there can only be one winner in such a scenario.....and thankfuly these muttonheads in true wales and the other ragbag of assorted anti-devolutionists are too stupid to realise that every time they reach for the 'abolish the assembly' button they are doing our job for us......
Leigh Richards
swansea
I agree Leigh.
Unfortunately further powers would have very little influence on future unemployment statistics. Fiscal powers would be needed to effect that. Fiscal powers are ironically not on the table yet, but a consistent plurality (and sometimes a majority) of Welsh voters actually want a law-making Assembly with some fiscal powers. Still, an empowered Assembly would be able to put more of a layer of protection in place against governments at Westminster.
"I want the choice that will face voters in the rederendum to be between those of us who want a stronger assembly in order to make devolution for wales work better....and those in true wales who want to see the assembly abolsihed"
Even for this blog this is poor. WR moans about the Tories not being honest with the figures, and then agrees with the above.
Suggesting that opponents of more powers want, or that the referendum will give, the option of no assembly is frankly just a lie.
Anon, people other than Leigh and Welsh Ramblings have made the point that the 'no' campaign is dominated by abolitionists- professional people on respected websites like WalesHome have made that point. You might disagree with them but they aren't lying. There's a very strong case made by Daran Hill that they aren't mounting a defence of the status quo as much as they are trying to roll things back. You can see he is right when so-called 'democratic socialists' like Rachel Banner and Dave Rees are forming alliances with UKIP.
I don't care what is said in the bay bubble. What I care about is that when the referendum comes the electorate are not deceived. A no vote will not mean no Assembly.
When you write articles about not misleading the electorate you cannot then turn round and say this rubbish.
Well plainly you do care, otherwise you wouldn't be writing on Welsh Ramblings!
Of course a no vote will not mean no assembly. But very credible people like Lee Waters have warned that a no vote would undermine the momentum of devolution, and a no vote is obviously a prerequisite for taking devolution backwards.
This is ludicrous anyway, it's not as if WR is saying a 'yes' vote means independence, so we wouldn't say a 'no' vote will result in abolition, just that those people (abolitionists) are the ones running the 'no' campaign.
All that is on offer is limited part 4 powers, or the LCO system. Nothing more, nothing less. But Leigh is entitled to question the motives of True Wales.
in response to anonymous nowhere do i state that a NO vote will result in the abolition of the assembly!!...what im saying is that there are many among the opponents of further powers who in truth wish to see the Assembly's abolition!!!
There is nothing at all 'dishonest' about this statement. You only have to look at the stated policy of UKIP - who it is being mooted may form the official NO campaign - to see this. UKIP's stated policy is to abolish the welsh assembly!
I live and work in swansea incidentally and am not part of or party to any so called cardiff bay 'bubble'..
Leigh Richards
SwWansea
No Ramblings, although I clearly do care about the referendum. I do not care or feel it justifies an argument that Darran or Lee feel a certain way.
The point I am making is that it is not just the Tories twisting the truth. The Yes campaign has tried to suggest that all no campaigners are all anti devolution right wingers. That is not the case.
"The Yes campaign has tried to suggest that all no campaigners are all anti devolution right wingers. That is not the case."
Please, find some that aren't and report back.
The ones that are in the Labour party. Including individuals that were active in anti poll tax unions in the past.
Happy.
How dubious! Not one organisation. group or party of the left in Wales opposes additional powers for the National Assembly.
I'd be more inclined to believe your left credentials if you hadn't leaping to the defence of the Tories on this comment thread.
It does say alot about the state of Labour in Wales that they alone of the Welsh progressive spectrum have people engaged in True Wales. Claiming you were in the anti-poll tax demo isn't good enough- you have to prove your commitment to radical politics NOW, rather than resting on your laurels from the past.
Perhaps you can name some of this impressive socialist vanguard that is working alongside UKIP and the progressive David Davies MP?
No one leaped to the defence of the Tories.
I simply pointed out that you also abuse figures. In the same way you twisted what I said.
The assumption that your cause of more powers is the definition of progressive is highly arrogant by the way.
"The assumption that your cause of more powers is the definition of progressive is highly arrogant by the way."
Again, please point me towards the progressive socialists who are involved in the 'No' campaign? You still haven't named any.
All of the trade unions support a yes vote, all of the left parties support a yes vote, as do the housing movement, the co-ops, the environmental groups, the language campaigners, the far-left, the centre-left, liberals, Lib Dems, the Communist Party, the credit unions, the refugee action group- yes you'd expect mainstream civic society to support the 'Yes' vote, but the radical side does as well. Because it is a cause of the left.
Where is the progressive 'No' vote Anon? It does not exist. Socialists do not work with UKIP for starters, on principle.
But please, let's hear some names, i'd like to know who's who in this mythical socialist 'No' movement.
Welsh unemployment has now gone up to 9.2%, though economic inactivity has fallen by 0.5% which is the greatest fall of any UK region.
It's hard to judge Welsh Government performance on these stats there are too many different factors at work.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/wales_politics/8572182.stm
Still waiting to hear about the progressive No campaigners that supposedly exist. Hopefully that particular Anon will come back soon.
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