Don't let him off the hook

There have been a few online pieces analysing Peter Hain's position on devolution in Wales, following an interesting week where he appeared to try and derail the progress on the ruling coalition in Cardiff Bay.

The article at WalesHome alleges that Hain is in fact sincere about taking devolution forward, and that he simply understands the political conditions very well and does not want to hold a referendum under difficult circumstances in which it could be lost.

Syniadau's comment is closer to the truth. His allegation is that Hain sees things through the lens of 'Labour Vs the Tories', through the lens of British electoral politics. It is true that Peter Hain is by default a supporter of devolution, but he only wants it to happen in such a fashion that it will bolster the fortunes of the Labour party. He is a British politician not a Welsh one, and it isn't clear why anyone would expect him to behave differently. Neath is simply the constituency he happens to represent in order for him to enjoy positions in the Cabinet at Westminster. His involvement in Welsh affairs is strictly in the sense that he is Westminster's man in Wales, not the other way around.

Similarly, during his address to the Assembly this week Peter Hain attacked Nick Bourne on the basis that "the Tories will not support a 'Yes' vote" and that "you can't deliver Tory voters to the 'Yes' side". This is quite divorced from the political picture in Wales in which everyone involved in the devolution debate has welcomed the fact that even senior Tories now support further devolution. Hain would undermine this for party political reasons, because his priority is what happens at the British level, not what happens in Wales.

Finally, it is for these reasons that Peter Hain's response to the Holtham Commissions findings is disgraceful. He is more interested in laying down "election gauntlets" than in resolving a significant fiscal problem. The Western Mail's coverage of what is a pretty dry issue is usually sound, but this time their take on Peter Hain's position lets him off the hook. The article they produced ignores the established reality; Wales' public funding will be cut regardless of which party comes into Government at Westminster.

United Kingdom supports torture

Is it really any wonder that some people in Wales pursue freedom for their country from the UK, when you read reports that the UK has recently been complicit in torture?

The evidence for British complicity and support for the use of torture comes from a report by Human Rights Watch, an NGO that has most often been criticised for being biased towards Western countries. The evidence is not really a surprise for those of us on the Welsh Left who have never been supportive of the alleged "War On Terror".

Quite simply, the British Government has pursued international policies which are more likely to cause terrorism than to stop it. They really are a bad regime considering the values that they espouse.

The ongoing Iraq Inquiry is proving that what people like Plaid and the anti-war movement were saying was correct all along. Anyone on the demonstrations across Wales and the rest of Europe would have known at the time that we were all right and it was the Labour government in Westminster and the Conservatives who were wrong. The Inquiry and the Human Rights Watch report should certainly make anyone who criticises Cuba pause for thought.

But this is not a cause for celebration. The problem with the UK advocating torture and supporting dishonesty is that it undermines the legitimacy and credibility of democratic, Western states and makes it impossible to put the case for human rights to some of the world's more oppressive societies. The UK will find it difficult to lecture anyone on torture now, and that is a shame.

It's very refreshing for us that are "Welsh not British" to know that a free Wales would have no need or possible inclination to torture anyone.

Well done Jocelyn

It is excellent news that even in a time of recession and economic crisis, one of Plaid's Ministers is co-ordinating record levels of spending on affordable housing. Jocelyn keeps a lower profile than many other Plaid elected representatives, but her work-rate on housing has clearly contributed to today's news that investment in affordable housing has gone up 20%. This is in spite of warnings from the Opposition that the Welsh Government would not achieve the One Wales target of 6,500 new affordable homes by 2011. We're now halfway towards meeting that particular commitment which was put in the agreement on Plaid Cymru's insistence.

It's interesting that the policies of the Welsh Government are at odds with New Labour's approach to housing that they have championed in Westminster under Blair and Brown. In fact they almost totally contradict them in spirit if not in practice. New Labour's housing policy has been to essentially continue the Thatcherite stance of supporting a highly speculative bubble based on property, which has seen the supply of social housing dry up. Combine that with Labour refusing to reform the strict Treasury rules which effectively prevent Councils from building houses, and that has led to a chronic shortage of homes. These areas of policy are of course outside of Wales' control for now, but with legislation we could get around them.

This might be a lesson for Labour in Wales to learn. When they wonder exactly how primary law-making powers would help the people of Wales, they need to look no further than Jocelyn Davies' Affordable Housing LCO which was kicked into the long grass by New Labour because it was too radical and challenged Westminster's market-based consensus on housing.

In particular, Huw Lewis needs to look at this issue and respond because his apparent radical politics (and his support for these kind of Plaid-style housing solutions) are simply not achievable under the current devolution settlement.

Let's wait and see whether his socialism is from the heart, or whether it is subject to Westminster's approval.

Coalition safe for now

There's no need to get excited as the predicted collapse of the Welsh Government has failed to happen.

But it's clear that Plaid Cymru flexed its muscles earlier and simply will not be taken for a ride.

Rhodri Morgan under pressure in the Senedd Chamber appeared to contradict his press release with Peter Hain and the Party Chair. In the statement with Hain and Garry Owen, it appeared that the leadership of Welsh Labour were ruling out the possibility of a referendum during the lifetime of this Assembly. Hain's meddling caused embarassment for the First Minister who waffled and backtracked. It would be an utter disgrace if the right-wing MPs in Welsh Labour made the retirement of a much loved Welsh leader into a divided and incoherent shambles.

In the Chamber and in a subsequent statement supported by Ieuan Wyn Jones the First Minister affirmed that "nothing has been ruled in or ruled out, including, if it proved practical, a referendum in the autumn". This statement pretty much amounts to a retraction of Peter Hain's version of events.

It appears that Plaid have overruled Welsh Labour's leadership on this occasion, and that a referendum in autumn 2010, fast becoming a strong proposition, is still on the cards. If that possibility gets ruled out by the next Welsh Labour leader, then he or she should not expect Plaid's support.

The whole debacle serves as a huge reminder that Rhodri Morgan has to try and satisfy the British wing of his party, and the MPs, and that playing that game inevitably has forced him to contradict his own press statements. There should be a consultation in the Labour movement about this massive paradox, rather than re-running their 2007 consultation about acquiring powers.

His would-be successors should be looking at this and learning their lessons. Will Welsh Labour ever think for itself? Or will they continue to be taken for a ride by Peter Hain and yesterday's men?

Heads of the Valleys road dualling

Flicking through the Assembly's record of proceedings for stories for Ramblings, a very important story about the Heads of the Valleys road programme comes up. It has been blogged about already this week but hasn't had a thorough treatment.

The record makes sobering reading for those who accuse Plaid Cymru of prioritising "nation-building" north-south links at the expense of safety-orientated east-west links. The Heads of the Valleys road programme is particularly serious, because the eventual allegation from the arguments of Labour AMs such as Huw Lewis and Alun Davies is that the Welsh Government's inaction could effectively be responsible for more people dying on the undualled section of the A465. Leadership candidate Huw Lewis was involved in a number of press stories in the Valleys papers last year, campaigning with RCT Labour councillors and petitioning Ieuan.

Alun Davies' charge against Ieuan Wyn Jones is that the Plaid Minister has let the road building scheme slip from a 2015 completion date to a 2020 completion date during his term in office. It has been blogged about elsewhere, but it's worth reading the record. Ieuan was able to competently defend his own record, the 2020 completion date has in fact been inherited from the previous Labour administration.

The Plaid leader made the point that he could complete all of his north-south road improvements (very important to the party) for a fraction of the cost of the Heads of the Valleys road. But despite this he has chosen to prioritise the east-west dualling, it is in fact the only road programme in Wales that has a finish date. It is also the most expensive programme in Wales, at a time when other roads have had to be scrapped because Plaid generally prefers to invest in public transport where practical.

Politics takes on a whole new meaning when peoples' lives are at risk, and from reading the record you can't help thinking that Alun Davies is misguided on this issue and is going for the throat to bolster his Blaenau Gwent candidacy credentials. The facts speak for themselves.

A tale of two speeches

Che notes that excerpts from one of Rhodri Morgan's last speeches deserve a wider audience than simply being in the pages of the Western Mail. The outgoing First Minister's comments about Wales' increasingly internationalist image are more examples of why he will be fondly remembered, despite doing a number of things with which Ramblings disagreed like sitting on the fence and protecting Tony Blair over Iraq. But nonetheless, there is a time for forgiveness and Rhodri clearly understands the potential contribution Wales can make to the world.

In a speech that Simon Dyda says "could have been written by Ty Gwynfor", Rhodri points out that-
“Malta has a population hardly bigger than Cardiff, but has a direct seat at the table and access to the entire EU decision-making machinery.”

Adam Price also this week made what could be one of his last significant speeches before he returns after studying in America. The blogosphere noted Adam's comments about Wales' national pyschology and lack of confidence, and the need to overcome this.

Rhodri's words ("For too long, our lack of confidence had emerged as a sense of suspicion of the wider world") echo Adam's position, though they come from different political traditions. Rhodri Morgan has mapped out clearly what Welsh Labour needs to do to remain relevant and not surrender Welshness to Plaid Cymru.

The world is becoming smaller and more interdependent. Wales being small is thus no longer a barrier to our success.

The All Wales Convention's recommendations won't of course deliver what nationalists want. They won't deliver anything particularly close to Scottish-style powers or anything that meaningful. But for the sake of confidence alone, a "Yes" vote will be another important step forward.

The financial cost of More Powers

What would be the financial cost to the taxpayer of Wales attaining direct law-making powers in the 20 fields currently on offer?

This is a question that the All Wales Convention at first couldn't answer. But during their public consultation it became frequently asked, so they looked for evidence and advice and heavily scrutinised it. This at least shows they were listening to people.

They found that the price of freedom in those defined areas will in government terms be cost neutral. In real terms, just over £1m. The judicial capacity already exists and once you count the savings made from getting rid of Peter Hain's discredited LCO system, we're left with a very affordable tab to pick up.

This blows away one of the myths being put about by the dinosaurs at True Wales.

Spreading the Good News

There has already been plenty of blogging about the much predicted result of the All Wales Convention's detailed and lengthy field work. It is an entirely positive thing that the Convention has recommended a referendum and has said that one could be won. This echoes everything Welsh Ramblings and other bloggers have been saying about the constitutional situation, and endorses Plaid Cymru's political strategy of working with Labour to try and take Wales forward.

Of course, it is not the be all and end all, this is just another measure of progress. The timing of the referendum is still up in the air and will be for the politicians decide. But right now, this is the result we wanted and expected. We need to hear from Labour's "Welsh" MPs how they feel about the Convention's report and recommendations. We will know more about how to take the situation further once they make their intentions clear, particularly Peter Hain.

Labour's devo-sceptic wing needs to seriously consider its position and start getting on board with progress, rather than risk standing against the tide of history.

Just a brief one

"As nationalists the lesson is clear: we should each of us start to think and behave prefiguratively as if our nation is already free. We must be the Wales we want to create: a vibrant, self-empowering, dynamic country that emphasises the power of our own initiative."
From Adam Price's lecture for the Institute of Welsh Politics on Monday night.

We need to build up our confidence and our post-colonial mindset as a precursor to political liberation.

Tomorrow might well set us on the way to a referendum. Ramblings will take a look at the situation and give comment, but it's surely obvious that the 'Yes' vote will not so much be about the actual powers as it will be about the confidence and symbolism of taking another step forward.

Team Carwyn link to BBC attacks

Rumours of Aneurin Glyndwr's demise were thankfully unfounded, as the site is very much alive and as dire as ever. Their latest post is a pretty brutal attack on BBC Wales, accusing the public service broadcaster of being a "Nat factory" and questioning salaries and expenses.

This isn't the first time the site has attacked the BBC, with a previous post containing a number of personal attacks on current and former members of staff and again questioning the broadcaster's impartiality.

Aneurin Glyndwr is of course officially endorsed by Labour Secretary of State for Wales Peter Hain. This is quite a serious endorsement, with the grubby site being sanctioned right from the top Labour's Kremlin.

It has been alleged to be run byDavid Taylor, a Labour activist who works for Leighton Andrews and is now a key campaign helper for Carwyn Jones' leadership campaign. He has since put it on record that he does not run the site, but helped set it up.

Can we therefore assume that Carwyn Jones is happy with this zealous and pretty spiteful campaign against the BBC?

Kiss of Death

From an impartial position it can certainly be said Huw Lewis' campaign has had a fairly decent impact on Welsh political circles and the commentariat, although it has barely made a dint on ordinary Welsh peoples lives (which isn't Huw's fault).

Although non-Labour voices have criticised Huw's conversion to radical left-wing politics (suggesting it is only skin deep and possibly is designed to ouflank Plaid's radicalism) and to supporting devolution in general, even Ramblings would agree that he has made a strong pitch to Labour members in terms of being the 'different' candidate. His campaign website is also excellent in terms of appeal and design. Calling him a "Mainstream Prophet" like WalesHome has is a bit naive, seeing as Huw's socialism is predicated on not disagreeing with Westminster on any issue, but still Huw has looked as someone who Plaid could work with. This would have been inconceivable before the campaign.

However, the endorsement of Lord Kinnock and Glenys Kinnock is surely something that completely undermines Huw's moderately succesful rebranding. It reminds us of the real tendencies that a Huw Lewis premiership would be tapping in to.

A Huw Lewis-led Wales would unfortunately be relying on the support of those who want to hold Wales back, those who only want further powers if in the words of Hain "Westminster's ultimate sovereignty is protected" and those who believe the LCO system works.

The Kinnocks are the two of the biggest Uncle Toms in Welsh history.

Hain in denial over Afghanistan

Anyone who saw the BBC Wales news last night might have seen Peter Hain and Elfyn Llwyd live outside Westminster, discussing the war in Afghanistan, the human cost of which is rising on a weekly basis. Afghanistan is one of the biggest political issues for the people of Wales at present, but Peter Hain's defence of the unwinnable conflict was flimsy at best. Sending more troops will mean causing more deaths, both of Welsh servicemen and Afghans.

Elfyn Llwyd made the alternative case and the one that more Welsh people recognise- that Afghanistan is looking more and more like Vietnam by the day.

The pressure must surely be mounting on pro-war Labour MPs like Peter Hain, as the United States most important man in Afghanistan has sensationally warned the US Government that sending more troops is "not a good idea".

Aneurin Glyndwr leaps from farce to farce

Welsh Labour's biggest ever internet farce has come to an early end, with the widely mocked Aneurin Glyndwr website now appearing to be inactive, according to Betsan's blog.

At the time of this post, the link to Aneurin Glyndwr leads to a username/password interface under the mispelled heading "Anuerin Glyndwr".

Let's not pull punches, the website was supposed to be a jewel in the crown for Labour's internet presence, or as Peter Hain described it "an Obama moment". Aneurin Glyndwr also claimed that Rhodri Morgan backed the site's launch, although the First Minister leading denied this. In a first for Welsh politics, the website was even mocked in different countries and in non-political internet communities. This in itself is something of an achievement.

Leading Labour "online activist" David Taylor wrote recently in the Institute of Welsh Affairs' journal Agenda that his Aneurin Glyndwr site had turned out to be a success despite initially being mocked.

Have Welsh Labour supremos now moved to shut it down? After all, the site itself continued to be cringeworthy for some time after its launch, containing badly thought-out attacks on BBC Wales employees amongst other gems.

The site has clearly become a liability for Leighton Andrews who will now be looking for a top post if Carwyn becomes First Minister. How can he be taken seriously when his staff are responsible for such a hideous own goal?

With all that said, we'd rather it had stayed up.

Welsh Labour talk up "mutualism" but they failed to deliver

Edwina Hart's campaign manager Andrew Davies has called for Wales to lead the way in promoting co-operatives and mutuals, in response to what he deems the "catastrophic failure of the banking system". Considering he is the Welsh Government's Finance Minister, these comments are very welcome.

Mr. Davies' speech that is quoted in the Western Mail article contains ideological references resonate well with Plaid Cymru and the party's tradition of decentralist socialism. A particularly interesting point from the article is that the Minister is apparently "animated by the idea of a citizen’s bank which could operate on a not-for-dividend basis".

But in practice, Andrew Davies rejected such an idea when Plaid thinkers like Adam Price and Leanne Wood advocated the "People's Bank" (a not-for-dividend model based on Post Offices) last year.

Adam suggested it back in 2006, before the financial crisis. We raised the idea last year and Adam re-iterated the demand this February.

Andrew Davies, Leighton Andrews and other Welsh Labour AMs chose not to support the idea at the time, instead signing a statement of opinion saying they would "promote the idea to the UK Government". Hardly inspiring stuff.

They have the right ideas but no ambition whatsoever. It would be nice if the next First Minister saw Wales creating its own People's Bank as the way forward, rather than "promoting" ideas to a right-wing and discredited UK Government.

Aggression towards Venezuela

In a departure from Welsh affairs it's worth looking at the current moves to bolster the United States' declining authority in Latin America, in particular the further strengthening of military ties between the US and Colombia. It's good that there is support for the policies of Venezuela's current government from politicians from the broad progressive spectrum in Wales and the UK, with politicians from the Labour party, Plaid, the SNP, the Greens and others all praising different aspects of social policy there.

At the same time, there are currently huge tensions in the Americas. Democracy has taken away much of the USA's influence over the region, with regime after regime falling to the left through ballot box change. The right has lost ground electorally and is looking to revert to its familiar old tactics of coup d'etat, as we saw recently in Honduras. Obviously, the previous Bush administration was fully supportive of that kind of brinkmanship, but many analysts thought that the Obama administration would be entirely different. Although there has been some welcome thawing in terms of dialogue, elements of the ruling class in the USA are now ramping up the militarisation of Colombia, which is the last major pro-US government in the northern part of South America.

America has of course always had a presence in Colombia, but the military agreement signed on October 30th almost officially renounces Colombian independence and sovereignty, and turns the country into a defacto client state.

A US Air Force document submitted to Congress in May 2009 details the scale and purpose of America's involvement in Colombia.

The best solution for the region is for politics to remain based on free and fair elections. Driving up the outside military presence does not seem to be a strategy designed to allow that to continue. Of course, regardless of partisan opinion, developments in Latin America are always carefully monitored and analysed for their relevance to the rest of the world. The world will as usual be watching with interest.